So, Iraq is still plugging away, with a fledgeling democracy vs. insurgency trying to destabalize it, mainly by trying to up the sectarian violence a little. Iran is a player in this game.
Israel and Lebannon geared up, fought for a while, and geared down, with not much to show for it other than a bunch of broken stuff and dead people. Iran was most definately a player in that game, although we're not sure what it hoped to gain.
So now Iran comes into focus. Nearing the end of it's carefully planned and travelled journey to become a nuclear power. Exploiting lots of ways it's found to become the new big kid on the block.
Now, hegemonies rise and fall. Power and influence comes and goes. The global game has been played for a long time, and will continue to be played long after this current round is over.
But something has me worried. I'm not sure what to think about Iran. On one side, we have the notion expressed by folks like Stratfor:
Quote:
It is our view that, despite the presence of some extremists in both the American and Iranian camps, the nations and governments as a whole are rational actors that (rhetoric notwithstanding) will not take actions that threaten their own core interests or survival. In short, actions are governed by very real and practical limitations, regardless of what some may think about Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's mental state or George W. Bush's abilities as a leader.
On the other hand, it's not impossible that Iran's president, and the mullah power brokers operating behind the curtain, actually believe the stuff they say about the "hidden Immam", and the need to destroy Israel, and the US being the great satan, and all that. (My smart buddy says "They're like Mormons without conscience.")
So, Iran and the US are currently engaged in beating chests, boasting and bragging about mines and submarines and carriers and air power, circling each other asking "you gotta problem?", and other actions often seen before a real conflict. Iran has a fairly good hand, in that it could shut down Hormuz for a hefty period of time. The UN has been about as useful as it's going to get - it's last card will be to levy sanctions on Iran.
So, what should we do? Let Iran get their nukes and do business with the new big kid? Help Israel take out their facilities? Try to pull another Iraq on them by teaming up with the Iranians that have been upset at their government since 1979?
What is the proper role for the US right now - and are you willing to live with the consequences of your answer?
The real impediment tween us fixing the issues in Iran, is Russia and China. If they would get onboard, Ahminewhackjob would not have a prayer's hope of getting nukes. I think both the Russians and the Chinese believe that if they can make the focus stay on America as the enemy, they can exploit the country's resources, and sell weapons, etc, and happy day for them...
I think a nuke in Shang Hai or in Moscow would change their opinion of islamic extermists, but a nuke in Seattle would not (though it certainly might change ours... for a few years...).
--Ray
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I'm not slow; I'm special. (Don't take it personally, everyone finds me offensive. Yet somehow I manage to live with myself.)
China and Russia are the real unsung culprits, but nukes could...and likely will, come from North Korea.
In the mid to long term, Pakistan's bomb will also have circulation within the Islamic world. Did you hear about the French built, stealth, submarine Pakistan in now manufacturing under license? It runs quieter than ours, is non-nuclear, and can stay submerged for 60 days without giving away it's position...oh yes, I almost forgot...Iran has submarine to surface cruise missile capability as of last thursday. This is not good news for our navy.
Iran needs to have it's nuclear processing plants destroyed now. I am told that we still have the ability to get past the hardening measures put in place by the Iranians.
Iran has the mentality and cultural background to promote itself as a world power. And, because they sit on a relatively easily exploited natural resource, they feel they have the right to be the legitimate counter to the only remaining super power in the world currently. I think this is the root of everything they do. They are trying to show they are a power to be reckoned with, because of a cultural thing dating way back to the Persian Empire. The bulk of Iranians are Persian before they are Islamic. They are not Arabs, but they use the Arabic causes and complaints against everyone else to their advantage.
If you think about it, this same sort of self-promotion is what a number of wannabe nations, whether considered rogue (N. Korea, Syria, Saddam's Iraq), third world emerging economic powerhouses (India, China), or former world powers (France, Germany) are in various ways trying to do... there is a vacuum to be filled, and Iran feels it is their destiny to fill it.
That is the real ideology to be concerned about, because you add all the other items in (the Islamic fundamentalism, the various Arabic causes included the so-called pan-arabic movement that many thought was dead decades ago, diplomatic paranoia, and the threat of nuclear weapons to back up it's claims when it is threatened), and you end up with a government and thought pattern very, very similar to pre WWII Germany and Russia with the fascist and communist wresting of power. They have simply been biding their time, and 1/3 of the "fascist" states in the middle east has been taken effectively out of the equation, and the other two are feeling pressure...
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It seems to me the only thing you've learned is that Caesar is a "salad dressing dude."
