It's interesting to watch things unfold from the perspective we have. We've been told for years and years to get out of debt, especially credit card debt. When it was easy to move balances around to low-or no- balance cards every few months, it was hard to think that getting them paid off was a priority.
Now with banks collapsing and the mortgage industry sending out not only financial ripples but tsunamis, options are becoming more and more slim. Banks are raising credit card interest at will. Small accounting mistakes (payments a couple of days late, for instance) can send your interest up to 30%, and triple your monthly payment (all while most of that payment isn't touching your principle). Then the other cards don't want to transfer balances because of the "problems" on the high-rate card. . . Credit lines are shrinking. I notice I'm not getting 5 offers a day in the mail anymore, in fact I can't think of the last time I got one. People are getting backed into a corner, and this time there really isn't an easy way out.
I'm glad we've worked on paying ours down. I wish we had gotten all the way there, but we're close. We just have to be very, very careful to pay on time every month, watch our statements, and funnel as much money as we can into getting rid of the darned thing.
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"There is order in the way the Lord reveals His will to mankind. . .we cannot receive revelation for someone else's stewardship." L. Tom Perry
We aren't even close to the Fall of Babylon in terms of devastation on our economies, or are we?
Revelation 18 11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more: 12 The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble, 13 And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men. 14 And the fruits that thy soul lusted after are departed from thee, and all things which were dainty and goodly are departed from thee, and thou shalt find them no more at all. 15 The merchants of these things, which were made rich by her, shall stand afar off for the fear of her torment, weeping and wailing, 16 And saying, Alas, alas, that great city, that was clothed in fine linen, and purple, and scarlet, and decked with gold, and precious stones, and pearls! 17 For in one hour so great riches is come to nought.
How about a year's supply of food, like we've been counseled?
I've been wondering, while the inflation from printing our own money is going to make our debts worth less, the loss of trillions upon trillions of dollras in worth in the stock markets may actually make our money worth more. What do you think?
I think we're going into uncharted territory. While many elements of the current situation are similar to what has happened before, many elements have changed. For instance, the world economy has never before been as interconnected as it is now.
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! - Samuel Adams
Double D everything I've read and understood says we're headed into a deep recession. You said weeks ago that it was Black Monday and we were in a depression the likes of which had never been seen. Like Organist said before, it's much like the boy who cried wolf.
One of the Elders said in conference that clouds don't always mean a storm.
The Dow has been this low before, and not long ago. It's scary to watch it freefall like this, but it also makes sense that it things would correct this way. I think we're in for a couple of years of slow-to-no growth and definitely some belt tightening, but I'm still not buying into the whole, stuff your mattress with bills, duck and cover mentality. If enough people react like that and withdraw all their money, then maybe I'll be worried. That alarms me more than the reality of what's happening.
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"There is order in the way the Lord reveals His will to mankind. . .we cannot receive revelation for someone else's stewardship." L. Tom Perry
I don't think that this is the end, but I think we're closer. For instance, the infamous "mark of the beast" could very easily come out of this global financial crisis. For instance, "for everyone's good", in the new economic system you'll need the mark for anything you want to buy or sell so that they can regulate everything. Regardless, very tough times are ahead.
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! - Samuel Adams
Let me put it this way, Coco. Would you object if they required you to have a swastika tattooed to your forehead before you could buy or sell something? It's the allegiance that the mark implies that is odious.
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! - Samuel Adams
So, what would you do if tomorrow Congress voted in a law requiring every person to get a "Obama for Dictator" tattoo?
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! - Samuel Adams
At the risk of being labeled an Ostritch hiding behind walls of denial, I note the following positive things about the market:
* I do business with Countrywide Financial (one of the first failures from way back in January). When it's business as usual, I sit back and they mail me three checks every month. They've never missed a payment - the last three arrived last week, right on time.
* Reading yesterday's WSJ, similar stock falls have occurred many times before. Current DJIA crash is 35%-ish since this started last Oct. The great depression saw something like an 80% crash. We've done 35% crashes a few times before - even in my lifetime. Arbi is right, this is a unique set of circumstances. But so were the great depression, the crashes in the '70's, and Black Tuesday in the '80's.
* The last time the stock market was this low, people still had jobs, bought and sold stuff, saved and spent, and lived their lives.
* There are indications that this week's falls are basically due to irrational panicking because they assumed the big bailout would work immediately.
I am betting my kid's college savings, and our own retirement, on the market finding it's bottom and beginning a slow recovery in the next month or two. In fact, we're decreasing our spending and increasing our investing.
We're doing other things to plan for the worse, of course. But I'm still optimistic.
LM
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And I'd discuss the holy books with the learned men, seven hours every day. That would be the sweetest thing of all.
The Great Depression started with a stock drop of 48% over 2.5 months. It took years for it to reach its nadir.
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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen! - Samuel Adams
Well, I don't plan on reaching my nadir until I have a good stretch first...
But the answer to an Obama tattoo would be "no."
Good luck, LM. My BIL pulled out this week. Couple of his buddies (and I'll admit they are getting to the age where they don't have another 5-10 years to "see what happens") had already lost 60k and 100k respectively.
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Life is tough but it's tougher if you're stupid. -John Wayne
The Great Depression started with a stock drop of 48% over 2.5 months. It took years for it to reach its nadir.
This is very true.
These things are also true: The crash of '37 took 7 months, bottomed out, and didn't gain everything back until 1945.
The crash of Oct 1987 occurred in two months, bottomed out, and gained it all back by '89. (And we're currently ~300%-ish higher.)
The crash of 1990 took 4 months, bottomed out, and gained it all back by 1991.
'98 took a couple months, gained it all back by the end of the year.
The crash of 9/11 was really lost in an overall downward trend starting Jan 2000, and ending March '03. It took until Oct '06 to gain it all back.
See, each one of these things is unique and different. Each has things in common, and dissimilar things about them. No matter what expert you listen to, no matter how broad or deep their education, their predictions are all just that - predictions. They're reading the same crystal ball you and I are, and it's telling them different things.
One thing the market has always done, is come back. That has always happened, decade after decade, consistently and predictably, from 1928 through 2007. I have 25-30 years until retirement. I'll continue investing in the stock market.
LM
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And I'd discuss the holy books with the learned men, seven hours every day. That would be the sweetest thing of all.
The economy has not been this bad here since the 1930s.
Say what you want, at least here, we are in a depression. Mexicans are headed south in droves. Hospital waiting room times are down. Beds are open, traffic is clearing up. Over 12 million dollars less were transferred from our state to Mexico this year in comparison with the same month last year.
The Dow will most likely go down to 5000. Folks are looking at the likelihood of an Obama presidency and his promise for an increase in capital gains. Many are ready to sell, take a loss and wait it out. If Obama wins, the market will continue to go down. If by some chance McCain pulls it out, the market will rally. That's just the way it is.
I'm glad that I haven't bet my kids college and my retirement in the market. We only have a small percentage there.... and it's getting smaller. I saw this coming last July and did nothing... so I deserve to lose what I have lost I suppose.
Double D wrote: "If Obama wins, the market will continue to go down. If by some chance McCain pulls it out, the market will rally. That's just the way it is.
I'm glad that I haven't bet my kids college and my retirement in the market. We only have a small percentage there.... and it's getting smaller. I saw this coming last July and did nothing... so I deserve to lose what I have lost I suppose."
Are you referring to what you personally could have done w/the market?
Also why do you think the market will go up w/McCain? (not trying to start political controversy, I'm really trying to understand your sincere opinion). I've never been so confused about an election and who is right as this time around.
