Looking ahead to 2008

fear of shiz · Profuse Pontificator

Looking ahead to 2008

Randy · Senior Member

I like Mitt and Jeb both, but the odds seem to be a bit higher that Mitt will run but not Jeb, so that's what tipped me over to vote for Mitt. So I'll make Jeb my choice for vice president, but I'd be just as happy if the ticket were reversed.

fear of shiz · Profuse Pontificator

Randy,

My heart is with Mitt, but I worry about his chances, both in the Primaries and in the General. I think he is a real leader, with great appeal, and great positions. I just worry that the "Mormon issue" will be insurmountable.

I am trying hard to not just throw my support to the "most electable". The Dems tried that in 2004 (or so they thought). The conventional wisdom is that McCain would be the "most electable." But I can't stand him, and really doubt that the base will turn out for him.

Jeb would be great, but the electorate will not go for another Bush. Not for a while. Maybe Jeb's son George P. Wouldn't that be fun--a third President Geo. Bush....

salesortonscom · Wise and Revered Master

With today's media, the mormon issue will be insurmountable.

Cat Herder · Understander of unimportant things

I don't know about that. Mormons have a pretty good reputation these days for having high integrity (Sen. Reid perhaps exceptin', but he's a Democrat, so the media gives him a bye ). Romney also has a decent track record behind him of actually being a politician who gets things done. So, if he can show that the Republican Party is back to actually doing the things the conservative majority in the country want (after they see that the Democrats have not really meant to do anything positive in that regard over the next couple years), then I think he will have a good chance of not only winnning the nomination, but upsetting any candidate the liberal side may bring. That is just my opinion, though.

McCain is too liberal for the bulk of Republicans, Guilani is rather liberal as well (plus he has skeletons in his closet), Newt Gingrich is a has been in the political arena so far as holding office, Jeb Bush may want to hedge for later if his brother's reputation continues to be attacked by the Democrats, and I have no idea who the others are...

salesortonscom · Wise and Revered Master

Cat Herder wrote:

I don't know about that. Mormons have a pretty good reputation these days for having high integrity (Sen. Reid perhaps exceptin', but he's a Democrat, so the media gives him a bye ). Romney also has a decent track record behind him of actually being a politician who gets things done. So, if he can show that the Republican Party is back to actually doing the things the conservative majority in the country want (after they see that the Democrats have not really meant to do anything positive in that regard over the next couple years), then I think he will have a good chance of not only winnning the nomination, but upsetting any candidate the liberal side may bring. That is just my opinion, though.

The problem with that assumption Cat is the idea that the media will be fair. They won't. They will tie him into Warren Jeffs and every other wacko. Then they will paint successful members of the church as a bunch of rich white guys and throw in the blacks not allowed to have the priesthood. It will be taken out of context and he will be painted by the same brush. When a major network has a story about President Bush being AWOL and the evidence proves to be a forgery yet they still stand behind the story then how can anyone believe an LDS presidential candidate will get a fair shake. I had to explain on a couple of occassions how Warren Jeffs didn't have anything to do with the church this year. If folks are confused about that then they will be even more confused after the media gets ramped up. The church has made tremendous strides in its public image but when the silly season starts, all bets are off. As soon as story is printed that is full of errors it gets put into the system. Then others cite that story as support for their story. Soon you have a whole Lexis Nexis mess of stories with garbage in them. The antis will be very active during the primary and their message will get out big time. I don't mean to sound like a defeatist but just look at the garbage in the recent election.

Randy · Senior Member

The liberal media vigorously opposed Reagan. The liberal media vigorously opposed GW Bush. There is a limit to what the liberal media can do.

Romney has an advantage that GW Bush never had. He is articulate.

I think that the press will get burned badly if they try to exploit the Mormon issue. And I think they know that. One of many reasons is that they will be unable to tar Romney with it without also tarring their darling Senate majority leader.

arbilad · Head Chef

I think that the Republican party is suffering from a serious case of schizophrenia. A large faction says that they need to return to our core values, such as are espoused by the religious right. The other faction speaks of needing to cleanse the lower colon of the Republican party of the religious right (in those words; I saw the article in the Rocky Mountain News) and move towards the center to survive.
McCain appeals to the "move to the center" crowd. He gets along well with democrats. He is very centrist. And he has charisma (to many of us, the charisma of a snake, but it's charisma all the same).
Romney doesn't have the support of a certain percentage of the religious right. He never will. There are some people who would rather pull out their own spleen with salad tongs rather than vote for a mormon. Can he appeal to Centrist Republicans while still upholding the values of the right?
I guess what I'm trying to say is that there are some serious fault lines in the republican party, and it will be difficult for a candidate to cross those divisions.

Roper · Senior Bucketkeeper

You know that prophesy about the Constitution hanging by a thread and the Elders of the church saving it? I wonder if Romney and Reid are destined to be those guys, and the Lord is positioning them and other Mormons in the House and Senate for their mission?

arbilad · Head Chef

Roper wrote:

You know that prophesy about the Constitution hanging by a thread and the Elders of the church saving it? I wonder if Romney and Reid are destined to be those guys, and the Lord is positioning them and other Mormons in the House and Senate for their mission?

If so, then Reid would have to have a major change of heart. I don't think much of Romney, but Reid is closer to being an enemy of the constitution rather than a savior of it.

Randy · Senior Member

arbilad wrote:

Romney doesn't have the support of a certain percentage of the religious right. He never will.

No one thought that the religious right would support a divorced actor from Bel Aire either. The co-religionists of the religious right were Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, and contrary to the way they are portrayed by the MSM, evangelicals are not a bunch of dumb hicks that can be led by the nose. They want nothing to do with another Carter or Clinton. They are practical and intelligent. When they are asked if they would support a generic Mormon they won't, but when they hear Romney speak they are on their feet loudly applauding. He gets them roused in a way that Giuliani and McCain cannot. You don't see it much now because the campaign hasn't really begun. But it's coming. Be prepared to be surprised.

Randy · Senior Member

Roper wrote:

You know that prophesy about the Constitution hanging by a thread and the Elders of the church saving it? I wonder if Romney and Reid are destined to be those guys, and the Lord is positioning them and other Mormons in the House and Senate for their mission?

You know Roper that's interesting, and perhaps even more interesting in light of a 60 Minutes profile of Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona. This ought to please even some of the 3rd party loyalists to some extent (I realize that they are awful hard to please so I won't get too enthused).

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/11/02/60minutes/main2145860.shtml

arbilad · Head Chef

I like what I read in this article. Those are some very honorably actions on the part of Rep. Flake. I have no idea what his other positions are, so I can't say that he's a good guy or a bad guy. I do know that I had a high opinion of a relative of his I serve with in Ukraine. I'm not sure how they're related, just that they are.

rayb · Hot Air Balloon

that whole prophecy about the Elders of the church saving the constitution makes me think that it ineeds to be more imperiled than it already is... I think 8 years under Hillary and another eight more under Obama will definitely give the Constitution a major shredding...

Then maybe the evangelicals will swallow their pride and elect a mormon.

--Ray

Cat Herder · Understander of unimportant things

So, 8 years under Hillary and 8 years under Obama... what would they be called then?

hmmmm... How about Billary O'bama and The Blustery Days? It would show the return of Algore, the droning depressing donkey, and the wise Kerry-wl with his stories of this and that he would keep on telling while the tree blows down. And let's not forget the ever excitable but loveable Deanbit who can't stand when someone bounces into his garden...

rayb · Hot Air Balloon

It will be hillary (and obama) for the dem ticket... there's no one else even remotely close to her. And the press has already sainted her...

--Ray

Cat Herder · Understander of unimportant things

They may try that ticket of Hillary and Obama, but I venture to say that if they do, it will be as big a landslide against the Democrat ticket as the Mondale / Ferraro ticket was. Too radical, both in demographics, and in ideology, for the average American voter. Particularly if Rep. Pelosi implodes politically as Speaker of The House.

rayb · Hot Air Balloon

Oh cat...poor, poor, poor naieve Cat...

Pelosi's the speaker of the House, third in line for the Presidency...

Do you honestly think that Pelosi is more popular than Hillary? The press determined this last election by sensationalizing republican scandals and ignoring dem ones... they ignore any baggage Hillary brings with her, and will HAMMER any other candidate, in order to appear "balanced" they will sacrifice a few democratic challengers, but in the end, she will win the appointment and be the next new hope for liberalism.

The question is whether conservatives can counter the will of the mainstream press, before another generation just wholesale embraces them. It comes in waves...

--Ray